Saturday, December 6, 2008

Mathematical Musings on Unemployment Figures

I really hate crap like this typical article from MSNBC:

Skittish employers slashed 533,000 jobs in November, the most in 34 years, catapulting the unemployment rate to 6.7 percent, dramatic proof the country is careening deeper into recession.

Look, if you are going to make broad comparisons across such a wide range of time (2008 back to 1974), then you need to make some nominal effort to create an apples-to-apples scenario.

Total US workforce (approx.)
2008 - 136,167,000
1974 - 77,657,000

Now, it is clear that a decline of 533,000 jobs is a far greater impact when the workforce is almost half what is is today. So, what exactly is the point of the comparison to 34 years ago? Does it say anything meaningful?

To me, it is a mathematical version of Orwell's Politics and the English Language (unemployment today is double-plus bad). Lazy usage of math impedes clear thinking in the same manner as lazy use of language.

1 comment:

Alice said...

No doubt there's lazy thinking that precedes the lazy language and lazy math.